Summary of chip prices of TI, ST, NXP, Infineon and other major manufacturers
According to the latest forecast released by Texas Instruments, the range of weak chip demand is expanding from the former electronic consumption field to the industrial machinery field, and the time for chip demand to recover may still be far away.
It is reported that auto and industrial machinery manufacturers contribute more than 60% of TI's revenue. According to TI's latest forecast, some industrial machinery manufacturers' customers, like computer and mobile phone manufacturers, are slowing down their orders. At present, only the automobile market remains strong in demand.
Texas Instruments said that, in general, with the promotion of this quarter, the order situation is deteriorating, and the cancellation of orders is increasing.
Although Texas Instruments claims that the demand for chips in the automotive industry is still strong, Kingai Chan, an analyst at Summit Insights Group, pointed out that many automobile manufacturers have ordered twice as many chips as they need, and it is expected that the demand for automotive chips will fall to the pre epidemic level in the first half of next year.
At present, the delivery time of TI has been shortened for five consecutive months, and most customers have received the message of shortened delivery time. Among them, the delivery dates of power management chips and analog chips dropped the most. According to the comprehensive big data, the TLV702 series was relatively popular in the last two weeks, and the price also increased slightly.
Meguiar's current situation is that personal computer sales have begun to slow down or shrink, while server sales are expected to grow almost nothing in 2023.
According to Sanjay Mehrotra, president and CEO of Micron Technologies, "The industry is experiencing the most serious imbalance between supply and demand in 13 years. The excessive supply of memory chips and insufficient demand have led the company to hold more inventory and lose pricing power. In the past few months, we have seen a sharp drop in demand." He said that customers are expected to turn to a healthier inventory level by the middle of 2023, Chip manufacturers' revenues will improve in the second half of next year.
It is also understood that Micron is cutting the budget for new plants and equipment. At present, it is estimated that the expenditure in fiscal year 2023 will be $7 billion to $7.5 billion, lower than the previous target of up to $12 billion. The company is also slowing down the introduction of more advanced manufacturing technology.
However, analysts pointed out that unlike other products in the industry, memory chips are manufactured according to industry standards, which means that products of competitors can be interchanged. Unless competitors follow the example of Micron, the commitment of Micron to reduce factory output and slow expansion projects will not alleviate the problem of chip oversupply.
In addition, it is worth noting that Micron Technology also announced that it plans to reduce its staff by about 10% in 2023 through a combination of voluntary downsizing and layoff. Public information shows that Micron has about 48000 employees, and the 10% layoff means that nearly 5000 people are affected. In addition, Micron also said that it would suspend the bonus payment in 2023.
Recently, it was reported that NXP, a large manufacturer, planned to increase the quotation of automotive chips. However, NXP did not respond to this news.
Although the consumer electronic supply chain entered the stage of inventory decontamination in the second half of the year, the demand for automotive, industrial control, Netcom chips and other applications is still rising. In particular, the demand for automotive chips is strong. IDM manufacturers such as NXP said that automotive customers are accelerating replenishment.
In view of the continuous shortage of supply chain capacity, NXP has established the NCNR (non cancellable and non returnable) system to help automobile manufacturers and Tier1 (first tier supplier) enterprises allocate reasonable capacity. According to the current and 2023 NCNR order level, NXP's current capacity can cover 80% of the order demand, which makes the company confident in the long-term market prospects.
It is reported that the automotive chips are structural rather than out of stock. The inventory pressure of some products has quietly spread, but the power semiconductor and MCU are still relatively tight at present. The delivery date of the automotive IGBTs of IDM manufacturers is still more than 50 weeks.
In addition, NXP began to slow down recruitment and cut capital expenditure.
Recently, Infineon announced that it had raised its revenue and profit targets. Its revenue growth increased from 9% to more than 10%, and its profit margin was expected to increase from 19% to 25%, which seems to confirm the news that Infineon plans to raise the price of automotive chips in the near future. It is reported that Infineon plans to raise the price of industrial and automotive components in the fourth quarter of this year. Consumer components will not rise, but industrial components will rise by 10%, and automotive components will rise by 20%.
At present, the supply of many industrial control chips and IGBTs of Infineon is still very tight, among which the Q4 lead time of IGBT is 39-50 weeks. According to insiders, it has become a consensus among many suppliers that the supply and demand gap of IGBT for vehicle specifications reaches 50%. When the supply of IGBT is in short supply, the delivery pressure is high, and the orders in hand have been arranged to the end of this year or even next year.
In order to meet the growing demand, Infineon plans to expand its production capacity. Its semiconductor factory in Austria was completed last year. The head of Infineon Automotive said in January this year that he expected the shortage of its core microchips to end next year and improve by the summer of 2023.
At present, the car chip production capacity has been sold out this year, and the visibility of the backlog of orders has reached 18 months, of which the IGBT supply is still very tight. Under the influence of the year-end price adjustment expectation of Infineon, Italy France Semiconductor and other major international manufacturers, domestic orders continue to burst. Some manufacturers predicted that the tight supply and demand would last until 2024-2025, and said frankly that "customers want to lock orders in 2025".
According to Digitimes, Rom, an international power semiconductor giant, plans to raise the price of its products from October 1. Italy France Semiconductor also plans to raise the price of industrial and automotive power devices in Q4.
Italy France Semiconductor pointed out that it will focus on the development of industry and automobile, which are the two markets with the strongest growth momentum in the business portfolio. It is the strategic direction in recent years to promote and focus on these two high growth markets, and it is also the key to achieve the goal of the company's revenue exceeding 20 billion dollars in three years.
Morgan Stanley pointed out in a recent report that automotive semiconductors such as MCU and CIS suppliers Renesa and Ansomy had issued orders to cut down on chip test orders in the fourth quarter, which seemed to "formally end the chip shortage problem that has plagued the automotive industry for a long time".
According to the analysis of a joint venture automobile manufacturer, apart from a small number of high-end chips, the problem of core shortage in the automobile industry has been basically solved. In his view, some companies use the chip shortage as an excuse for poor sales. At the same time, in terms of demand, he said that many consumers have shelved their car purchase plans recently.
In addition, Hassane El Khoury, president and CEO of Ansome, said that the largest revenue growth of Ansome in 2023 would come from the growth of silicon carbide in the new energy vehicle market. In September 2022, the expansion of the SiC factory in Roznov, Czech Republic, was completed, and the production capacity would gradually increase by 16 times in the next two years; Up to now, Ansenmey has invested more than 150 million dollars in the Czech factory, and will continue to invest 300 million dollars before the end of 2023.